Still Waiting For Yushchenko

Midnight has passed and still no decision from Yushchenko on whether or not to dissolve the Ukrainian parliament. What is he doing!? Quite possibly the most indecisive President in the history of Europe. Well Yushchenko must have made his decision by now because the deadline (23:59pm) has passed. And still we wait...

A reminder of his options...

• Yushchenko has been waiting until today - when he can now legally dissolve Parliament. He takes this choice and Regions accept - ready for the challenge. An election campaign is fought in which the Orange team narrowly winning and Lytvyn's bloc managing to get back into Parliament. Realistic? 10%.

• Yushchenko has been waiting until today - when he can now legally dissolve Parliament. He takes this choice and Regions accept - ready for the challenge. An election campaign is fought, but in spite of an heroic performance by Tymoshenko, Regions scrape a majority. Yushchenko realises his impeachment and a trip to Kiev by Alexander Lukashenko are only months away. Realistic? 65%

• Yushchenko has been waiting until today - when he can now legally dissolve Parliament. He takes this choice and Regions announce a Coup is underway. Thanks to Lytvyn and Tymoshenko messing about last year and refusing to swear in judges, no Constitutional Court exists. Chaos ensues. Yanukovych and Moroz announce they are holding the Rada against the Coup, and begin to make moves to impeach Yushchenko. Sensing disaster, Tymoshenko and Poroshenko urge the President to use force to capture the Rada. The move is successful, but only smells like mid-1990's Russia. The taste is much sharper and some form of mild Civil War breaks out between the East and West, with local councils in the East deciding they want to break-away and join up with the Russian Federation. Yushchenko rules by decree. Eventually western-Ukraine splits away and forms its own state - quickly joining the EU. Realistic? For the most part 35%

• Yushchenko reads the above possibility or realises that he better not risk lowering his opinion poll rating any further. He decides to do nothing. Regions form a government, but it turns out Moroz was just pulling our leg. He really is a decent Socialist. Realising that he and the Communists have nothing in common with Yanukoych, he causes all kinds of havoc before teaming up once more with BYuT and Our Ukraine. Now though he has the Speaker's post, and £300 million to retire to a villa in Northern Cyprus once his disgraced party flunks the next election. Well....maybe not the latter part. Realistic? 10%

• Yushchenko reads the above possibility or realises that he better not risk lowering his opinion poll rating any further. He decides to do nothing. Regions form a government, but it turns out Moroz really couldn't care less about Socialism or Democracy. The £300 million bung he MAY have received is enough for him to keep quiet whilst Yanukovych closes down all independent media and slips a more effective poison, than the job SOMEONE did on Yushchenko, into Tymoshenko's soup. Yushchenko fades into the sunset, barely making a speech or visit out of shame until his term in office runs out. Realistic? 80%

• Yushchenko reads the above possibility or realises that be better not risk lowering his opinion poll rating any further. He decides to do nothing. Regions form a government, but waste most of their time not on sorting out the economy but dealing with a weak, poc-marked President. The Constitutional Court becomes stacked with Donetsk gangsters who are quite happy to impeach Yushchenko. Viktor leaves office, Moroz becomes acting-President (at last the position he dreamed of in 1999!), but is told to refrain from any independent thoughts. Yushchenko and his family are forced to flee to the EU whilst Tymoshenko stays to fight on. Within 10 years Ukraine is in a Belarus situation, where BYuT can't muster a seat in Parliament and foreign investors have lost all interest. Realistic? 70%

N.B - The above percentages are worked out using a mathematical system no more sophisticated than my own hunches. Any references to suspected poisonings, bungs or villa's in Northern Cyprus are purely fictional.

So why the hold-up? Either because of this, or because Yushchenko is hoping to break the news at 2:00am when everyone is asleep and avoid causing a massive riot in Kiev.

One tit-bit of info to wake you from the snooze this 'crisis' is causing - thanks to Reuters

'Presidential adviser Mykola Poludenny indicated that Yushchenko was leaning towards dissolution.
"This situation in parliament, it cannot go on. There should be a new parliament," he told the Fifth television channel.'

Fingers crossed