Ukraine Election 2006: The Analysis

Two Exit Polls are claiming that President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine may come third in Parliamentary elections.

If this is the case the Orange team may be reunited, but under Tymoshenko's Premiership. Whilst this would be good in terms of quickly forming a government (the charismatic leader may dig her heels in if she can't get anything other than the P.M's job) it could be bad news for Ukraine. Yulia's bloc advocates strong state intervention for the Ukrainian economy, something likely to scare off investors. 4 years of such old-school economics and Kiev could find itself in a financially worse state than today.


Here is the only full exit poll I can find:

Regions (Yanukovych): 27.5%

Tymoshenko Bloc: 21.6%

Our Ukraine (Yushchenko): 15.6%

Socialist Party: 5.5%

Communists: 4.7%

Lytvyn Bloc: 5.1%

Vitrenko Bloc: 3.2%

I have no idea how this proportional system is working, a quick calculation of percentages using the method wikipedia describes, tells me that Regions will have 136 Deputies, Tymoshenko 104 Deputies, Our Ukraine 71 Deputies, Socialists 16 Deputies, Communists 12 Deputies, Lytvyn 14 Deputies, Vitrenko 4 Deputies. Obviously this falls short by about 100 Deputies, but gives you some idea of how things will look in the new parliament. The Orange camp should be able to form a government out of this.

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I know I haven't commented much on the vote, so here is a bit of background.

Regions of Ukraine: Pro-Russian, Market Economics, Centrist Social Agenda (tainted by Kuchma association but now advocating protection of Opposition), Federalized Ukraine

Our Ukraine: Pro-European, Free Market Economics, Liberal Social Agenda, Unitary State

Tymoshenko Bloc: Moderately Pro-European/NATO-sceptic, State Intervention, Liberal Social Agenda, Unitary State

Socialists Bloc: Pro-European, Mixed Economy, Liberal Social Agenda, Unitary State

Communists: Pro-Russian, Nationalised Economy, Conservative Social Agenda, Unitary State

Lytvyn: Balanced between Europe and Russia, some State Intervention, Conservative Social Agenda, Decentralized Unitary State

Vitrenko: Staunchly Pro-Russian, State Intervention, Conservative Social Agenda, Federal Structure, Favourable to Joining Russia-Belarus Union.

As you can see the Russo-Euro political split is about 50:50, with Lytvyn clearly hoping to play kingmaker in Parliament. Whilst a clever tactic, the overall results may make his Bloc a small opposition grouping in the chamber. Of the other small parties; the Vitrenko bloc and Communists are extremely anti-European, and their view of economics unlikely to fit in with that of any party.

Short-Term Effects: Our Ukraine, Tymoshenko's Bloc and the Socialists will likely form a government, headed by Tymoshenko.

Party of Regions will be a strong opposition force in Parliament, possibly joined by the Lytvyn Bloc.

The Communists and Vitrenko - gaining their support largely from the elderly - will oppose much of the Orange government's eventual programme.

Long-Term Effects: Unless others are able to moderate Tymoshenko's economics, Ukraine may face a further slow-down in growth, creating political apathy and strengthening Yushchenko and the Socialists standing at the next election.

Regions of Ukraine will likely have to adapt their manifesto if hoping to form a coalition government before or after the next ballot. The party may be best served by reviving itself - perhaps ditching Yanukovych (tainted by association with Kuchma and a heavy-handed approach to opposition whilst PM). The Regions need not however abandon their Pro-Russian stance, something that could moderate radical pro-European's such as within Our Ukraine. It is possible, if a younger leader takes over the party showing a break with the past (something the British Conservative's have done), that Regions could find itself in government. The likelihood of Our Ukraine and the Socialists pulling out of a disfunctional Tymoshenko government, and working with a reformed Region's party, sometime in the next few years exists.

Lytvyn's best opportunity may now lie in moving to a slight pro-Russian stance. If he can build on his position as mild Conservative and advocate of a mixed economy, he can appear as a viable alternative to the Regions of Ukraine in 2011. If not his Bloc, unlikely to cause any hassle for the 3 pro-European parties, could be regarded as an ineffective choice in future elections.

The final two parties are unlikely to cross the 3% threshold in future elections - their Soviet nostalgia unappealing to any younger voters, their current support likely to die off by 2011.

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Thats all for now, here are a few blogs to keep your Ukrainian minds at work:

http://www.orangeukraine.squarespace.com/ offers top analysis of the situation in Kiev

http://vkhokhl.blogspot.com/ gives a virtual minute by minute update on the situation

And check back to http://blog.kievukraine.info/ for constantly updated stories from various Agencies.

Enjoy!