Closure...

...at last, after Yushchenko finally made a decision. In spite of earlier predictions, a scenario previously unseen occurred. Our Ukraine looks set to join Regions and the Socialists without the Communist Party, who failed to agree to a number of points in a National Unity Document.

So good news or bad news?

Well no Communists is certainly good news. If they were thrown a bung by the Party of Regions, they're now out of a likely government, which should make decision making a bit more fluid. A situation where a bloc in the government has been bought off, tends to result in their blind and unwavering support. At least with a (more or less) honest Our Ukraine holding a few posts, the chance of Democracy being completely destroyed are slim.

More good stuff. Yulia Tymoshenko has agreed to come back to Parliament. This means there will be someone leading from the opposition who isn't an old school Communist. Should certainly keep Regions on their toes, and might give the kiss of death to the government in the coming months. Afterall if Yulia is serious about recruiting Regions/NSNU/Socialist rebels, she may get enough people on her side to bring down the government - or at least frighten Yanukovych enough to prevent him doing anything too radical.

Bad news. A lot of people still aren't sure exactly what Yanukovych will get upto in office. Fears about Freedom of Speech and government transparency are likely to remain. Furthermore in spite of the pledges to continue integration towards the EU - I just cant see it. If Yanukovych is to be a Dictator, then he has no hope of joining the Union, and will make no pretence about that. If he is to rule as a Democrat then he will need to rely on his Russian-speaking support base. His work will be cut out if they are to change their minds - personally I think it is a no-go.

A few final thoughts for now...

Why has Yushchenko insisted that the Orange Revolution was about bringing Ukraine closer to the EU and NATO? These are positions that Yanukovych would have found intollerable - so why would he have signed any documents pledging support for such policy. Surely the spirit of Orange was Democracy and Freedom of Speech. These would have been much more easier for Regions to agree to (although only if they wanted to), without abandoning their core supporters. Why did the two Viktors not agree to put the whole EU/Russia thing on pause for 4 years, and work simply towards economic growth and raising the Ukrainian standard of living. The country is big enough to stand and grow on it's own without being propped up by Brussels.

Yanukovych can rule as a Democrat. He has the opportunity - if he wants it - to start afresh and run a clean government. The past is the past - he was allowed off the hook by Yushchenko, and any shady dealings of the past should be left to history. Starting from today, he can run a smooth ship and improve all of Ukraine's wealth (which would include his own) if he so wishes.

All is not lost. Yushchenko will exercise some influence through the Our Ukraine involvement in government. He also has a veto that would require a 2/3rd's majority to overturn at his disposal. Unless Yulia teamed up with Regions to do so, it's likely that what laws Yushchenko finds unsatisfactory will be overturned.

We wait and see......

Still Waiting For Yushchenko

Midnight has passed and still no decision from Yushchenko on whether or not to dissolve the Ukrainian parliament. What is he doing!? Quite possibly the most indecisive President in the history of Europe. Well Yushchenko must have made his decision by now because the deadline (23:59pm) has passed. And still we wait...

A reminder of his options...

• Yushchenko has been waiting until today - when he can now legally dissolve Parliament. He takes this choice and Regions accept - ready for the challenge. An election campaign is fought in which the Orange team narrowly winning and Lytvyn's bloc managing to get back into Parliament. Realistic? 10%.

• Yushchenko has been waiting until today - when he can now legally dissolve Parliament. He takes this choice and Regions accept - ready for the challenge. An election campaign is fought, but in spite of an heroic performance by Tymoshenko, Regions scrape a majority. Yushchenko realises his impeachment and a trip to Kiev by Alexander Lukashenko are only months away. Realistic? 65%

• Yushchenko has been waiting until today - when he can now legally dissolve Parliament. He takes this choice and Regions announce a Coup is underway. Thanks to Lytvyn and Tymoshenko messing about last year and refusing to swear in judges, no Constitutional Court exists. Chaos ensues. Yanukovych and Moroz announce they are holding the Rada against the Coup, and begin to make moves to impeach Yushchenko. Sensing disaster, Tymoshenko and Poroshenko urge the President to use force to capture the Rada. The move is successful, but only smells like mid-1990's Russia. The taste is much sharper and some form of mild Civil War breaks out between the East and West, with local councils in the East deciding they want to break-away and join up with the Russian Federation. Yushchenko rules by decree. Eventually western-Ukraine splits away and forms its own state - quickly joining the EU. Realistic? For the most part 35%

• Yushchenko reads the above possibility or realises that he better not risk lowering his opinion poll rating any further. He decides to do nothing. Regions form a government, but it turns out Moroz was just pulling our leg. He really is a decent Socialist. Realising that he and the Communists have nothing in common with Yanukoych, he causes all kinds of havoc before teaming up once more with BYuT and Our Ukraine. Now though he has the Speaker's post, and £300 million to retire to a villa in Northern Cyprus once his disgraced party flunks the next election. Well....maybe not the latter part. Realistic? 10%

• Yushchenko reads the above possibility or realises that he better not risk lowering his opinion poll rating any further. He decides to do nothing. Regions form a government, but it turns out Moroz really couldn't care less about Socialism or Democracy. The £300 million bung he MAY have received is enough for him to keep quiet whilst Yanukovych closes down all independent media and slips a more effective poison, than the job SOMEONE did on Yushchenko, into Tymoshenko's soup. Yushchenko fades into the sunset, barely making a speech or visit out of shame until his term in office runs out. Realistic? 80%

• Yushchenko reads the above possibility or realises that be better not risk lowering his opinion poll rating any further. He decides to do nothing. Regions form a government, but waste most of their time not on sorting out the economy but dealing with a weak, poc-marked President. The Constitutional Court becomes stacked with Donetsk gangsters who are quite happy to impeach Yushchenko. Viktor leaves office, Moroz becomes acting-President (at last the position he dreamed of in 1999!), but is told to refrain from any independent thoughts. Yushchenko and his family are forced to flee to the EU whilst Tymoshenko stays to fight on. Within 10 years Ukraine is in a Belarus situation, where BYuT can't muster a seat in Parliament and foreign investors have lost all interest. Realistic? 70%

N.B - The above percentages are worked out using a mathematical system no more sophisticated than my own hunches. Any references to suspected poisonings, bungs or villa's in Northern Cyprus are purely fictional.

So why the hold-up? Either because of this, or because Yushchenko is hoping to break the news at 2:00am when everyone is asleep and avoid causing a massive riot in Kiev.

One tit-bit of info to wake you from the snooze this 'crisis' is causing - thanks to Reuters

'Presidential adviser Mykola Poludenny indicated that Yushchenko was leaning towards dissolution.
"This situation in parliament, it cannot go on. There should be a new parliament," he told the Fifth television channel.'

Fingers crossed