Democracy Rising

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable" ~ President John F. Kennedy

Thursday, December 29, 2005

Off-Topic: Iraq's Sectarian Woe's

Whilst this blog mainly focuses upon Democracy, occasionally I do wander off my own path to discuss other issues.

As you may have read, today 12 Shia Iraqi's have been abducted and murdered, after insurgents threatened them to leave a mainly Sunni town or face the consequences. Despite many hundreds of Iraqi's being killed by various lunatics every week, usually 'collaborators' or occupying/coalition forces are targets. This time things have changed. Ordinary people are being grabbed from their homes and being murdered just for following a different sect of Islam. A worrying development for Iraq, and all part of the insurgency's plan to bring about Civil War. I therefore present to you a few potential routes Iraq's future may take:

1) The insurgency is somehow defeated and brought into the political process, with a few renegade members causing occasional trouble/skirmishes.

2) The insurgents wear down the Iraqi authorities and coalition/occupying forces to such an extent that they take control of the country, ala-Taliban.

3) A Colombia scenario, where a civil war of sorts goes on for decades, neither side making any significant gains or losses, and a barely functioning state apparatus.

How do you feel Iraq's future will pan out? Often I look to history for parallels, yet the most common example given is Vietnam. As we all know the Vietcong were a well organised, united organisation, and it is therefore hard to compare them to the rag-tag group of bandits currently operating in Iraq.

On a side note, one story that demonstrated the insurgency's 'amateurism' was the abduction of Bernard Planche yesterday. An unknown group demanded all French troops leave Iraqi territory immediately. There are no troops from France based in the country - yet another tragic example of the insurgency's stupidity.


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